Turkish politicsHow will Turkey react to the Syrian downing of their unarmed plane?
TURKEY has long hinted at military intervention over the unremitting slaughter of Syrian civilians at the hands of the forces of Bashar Assad, Syria’s president. Will Turkey actually act on its threats? The question gained fresh urgency on Friday after Syrian forces shot down a Turkish fighter jet.
Turkey says the unarmed plane was on a training mission when it was struck by Syrian anti-aircraft weapons in international airspace without prior warning. Ahmet Davutoğlu, Turkey’s foreign minister, said the F-4 Phantom had briefly strayed into Syrian airspace but that it was hit 15 minutes later “in international airspace, 13 nautical miles out of Syria, when Syrian territorial space is 12 miles.”
Mr Davutoğlu ridiculed Syria’s claims that it had not known the plane was Turkish saying Turkey had intercepted exchanges between Syrian officials that belied such denials. He called the downing of the plane an unprovoked and hostile act. “Our response will be strong, decisive and in keeping with international law” said Ibrahim Kalın, a top foreign policy advisor to Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He declined to elaborate.
Turkey, a NATO member, was set to hold emergency talks at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday. Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state, confirmed that the matter would be also brought before the United Nations Security Council. Meanwhile the European Union has agreed on new sanctions against Syria. These include banning insurance and re-insurance of arms shipments to Syria. Yet, in a further sign of Western reluctance to intervene militarily, Catherine Ashton, the EU’s foreign-policy chief, stated, “We will obviously be looking to Turkey to be restrained in its response.”
"The most Turkey can hope for is verbal condemnations," said a Western diplomat in Ankara. Turkish officials insist that Turkey must respond forcefully otherwise its claims at regional leadership will be badly dented as will Mr Erdogan's image at home.
The Turkish media has speculated about an array of options including targeted airstrikes against Syrian military installations and the establishment of a buffer zone along Turkey's 900-kilometre-wide border with Syria. But many observers say it is unlikely that Turkey will risk war with Syria.
"The downing of the plane exposed the limits of Turkey's power, there is little Turkey can do on its own," said Soli Ozel, a foreign-policy expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University. "This isn't about merely taking on Syria but taking on [its allies] Russia and Iran as well," he added.
The Turkish army is already stretched by its 28-year war against rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which killed eight Turkish soldiers last week in an attack mounted from its mountain bases in northern Iraq. Moreover, recent polls suggest that most Turks are opposed to war. Turkey has been leading calls for regime change in Syria and is hosting the opposition including the leader of the Syrian Free Army, Colonel Riad al-Asaad.
There have been persistent reports that Turkey is turning a blind eye to the flow of weapons to opposition fighters from its borders and is arming and training the rebels itself. Turkey denies this. "There are no arms going from Turkey and Turkey is not arming or training and rebels, it's pure fiction," said Selcuk Unal, the foreign-ministry spokesman.
Over a year ago, talk of war between Turkey and Syria would have sounded like pure fiction. Economic and political ties were booming and, as Mr Erdogan often likes to recall, he had grown so close to the Assads that "they became part of our family circle". But the Arab Spring abruptly changed this, and when Mr Assad refused to heed Mr Erdogan's entreaties to stop killing his own people, Turkey turned.
Mr Erdogan's critics charge that Turkey's overt embrace of the Syrian opposition means that it cannot mediate in the conflict. Others opine that by flying its warplane so close to Syrian airspace Turkey was asking for trouble. "If it was provocation it is so bad and if it was a mistake it's so bad, the situation is so tense it's like spoiling for a fight," said a Western diplomat.
Whatever Turkey's motives, it continues to keep its doors open to a stready stream of Syrian refugees. More than 30,000 are housed in camps that boast computer-equipped classrooms for children, pristine dispensaries, and freshly cooked meals. "We are on the side of the Syrian people", says Mr Kalin. A growing number of Syrians would probably agree.
TURKEY has long hinted at military intervention over the unremitting slaughter of Syrian civilians at the hands of the forces of Bashar Assad, Syria’s president. Will Turkey actually act on its threats? The question gained fresh urgency on Friday after Syrian forces shot down a Turkish fighter jet.
Turkey says the unarmed plane was on a training mission when it was struck by Syrian anti-aircraft weapons in international airspace without prior warning. Ahmet Davutoğlu, Turkey’s foreign minister, said the F-4 Phantom had briefly strayed into Syrian airspace but that it was hit 15 minutes later “in international airspace, 13 nautical miles out of Syria, when Syrian territorial space is 12 miles.”
Mr Davutoğlu ridiculed Syria’s claims that it had not known the plane was Turkish saying Turkey had intercepted exchanges between Syrian officials that belied such denials. He called the downing of the plane an unprovoked and hostile act. “Our response will be strong, decisive and in keeping with international law” said Ibrahim Kalın, a top foreign policy advisor to Turkey’s prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He declined to elaborate.
Turkey, a NATO member, was set to hold emergency talks at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels on Tuesday. Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state, confirmed that the matter would be also brought before the United Nations Security Council. Meanwhile the European Union has agreed on new sanctions against Syria. These include banning insurance and re-insurance of arms shipments to Syria. Yet, in a further sign of Western reluctance to intervene militarily, Catherine Ashton, the EU’s foreign-policy chief, stated, “We will obviously be looking to Turkey to be restrained in its response.”
"The most Turkey can hope for is verbal condemnations," said a Western diplomat in Ankara. Turkish officials insist that Turkey must respond forcefully otherwise its claims at regional leadership will be badly dented as will Mr Erdogan's image at home.
The Turkish media has speculated about an array of options including targeted airstrikes against Syrian military installations and the establishment of a buffer zone along Turkey's 900-kilometre-wide border with Syria. But many observers say it is unlikely that Turkey will risk war with Syria.
"The downing of the plane exposed the limits of Turkey's power, there is little Turkey can do on its own," said Soli Ozel, a foreign-policy expert at Istanbul's Kadir Has University. "This isn't about merely taking on Syria but taking on [its allies] Russia and Iran as well," he added.
The Turkish army is already stretched by its 28-year war against rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which killed eight Turkish soldiers last week in an attack mounted from its mountain bases in northern Iraq. Moreover, recent polls suggest that most Turks are opposed to war. Turkey has been leading calls for regime change in Syria and is hosting the opposition including the leader of the Syrian Free Army, Colonel Riad al-Asaad.
There have been persistent reports that Turkey is turning a blind eye to the flow of weapons to opposition fighters from its borders and is arming and training the rebels itself. Turkey denies this. "There are no arms going from Turkey and Turkey is not arming or training and rebels, it's pure fiction," said Selcuk Unal, the foreign-ministry spokesman.
Over a year ago, talk of war between Turkey and Syria would have sounded like pure fiction. Economic and political ties were booming and, as Mr Erdogan often likes to recall, he had grown so close to the Assads that "they became part of our family circle". But the Arab Spring abruptly changed this, and when Mr Assad refused to heed Mr Erdogan's entreaties to stop killing his own people, Turkey turned.
Mr Erdogan's critics charge that Turkey's overt embrace of the Syrian opposition means that it cannot mediate in the conflict. Others opine that by flying its warplane so close to Syrian airspace Turkey was asking for trouble. "If it was provocation it is so bad and if it was a mistake it's so bad, the situation is so tense it's like spoiling for a fight," said a Western diplomat.
Whatever Turkey's motives, it continues to keep its doors open to a stready stream of Syrian refugees. More than 30,000 are housed in camps that boast computer-equipped classrooms for children, pristine dispensaries, and freshly cooked meals. "We are on the side of the Syrian people", says Mr Kalin. A growing number of Syrians would probably agree.
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