Is there life after Erdogan?

Turkey's prime minister
Is there life after Erdogan?







WHO will be Turkey’s next prime minister? The question might sound premature; in June Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was re-elected for a third consecutive term, his Justice and Development (AK) party winning a thumping 50% of the vote.
But when it emerged that Mr Erdoğan had undergone stomach surgeryon November 26th, Turks embarked on a frenzy of speculation. The prime minister's doctors swiftly reassured the nation that the country’s most popular leader since Atatürk did not have cancer, as many had believed, and was recovering well. But this did not stop the rumour-mills from churning as Mr Erdoğan recuperated in his Istanbul home, before returning to Ankara this week.
Speculation about a power struggle within AK grew when senior party figures, including the deputy prime minister, Bulent Arinc, spoke out against proposals backed by Mr Erdoğan that would reduce penalties for match-fixing, a serious problem for Turkish football. Mr Arinc, who enjoys considerable support among AK’s pious base, is thought to covet Mr Erdoğan's job when it becomes free in 2015.
Under AK’s internal rules Mr Erdoğan cannot run for parliament for a fourth time. Instead, he is widely expected to stand for president in 2014, when the incumbent, Abdullah Gül, steps down. Other potential successors to Mr Erdoğan include Ahmet Davutoğlu, the foreign minister, whose popularity extends well beyond AK’s base, and Ali Babacan, the quietly efficient economy minister.
Until recently it was widely assumed that Mr Gül would lead AK into the 2015 elections, in a Russia-style job swap with Mr Erdoğan. A former foreign minister with numerous fans among Turkey’s western allies, Mr Gül is seen as the only man who can keep AK together once Mr Erdoğanmoves upstairs. The trouble is that the ambitious Mr Erdoğan is unlikely to be content with the largely ceremonial role played by Turkish presidents, and will seek to dictate policy.
But Mr Gül, who co-founded AK with Mr Erdoğan, is no poodle. This was made obvious when he vetoed the match-fixing bill on the grounds that it could be considered to be designed to save suspects caught up in a recent scandal. From his sick bed Mr Erdoğan hit back, ordering the bill to be resent to parliament untouched.
In the event, even AK dissenters voted in its favour and it was passed. Mr Gül could have referred the bill to the constitutional court. But he backed down and said he would sign it.
To avoid future squabbles a possibility mooted by some is for Mr Gül to become the next United Nations secretary-general. News that he has asked an British academic to write his biography, presumably for a foreign audience, has been interpreted by some as him laying the ground for his candidacy.
Meanwhile, other cracks in the Turkish elite are growing, especially between Mr Erdoğan and Turkey’s most influential Muslim alliance, led by a Pennsylvania-based imam called Fethullah Gülen. Mr Gülen's support has been crucial to AK. His millions of followers have thrived under nine years of the party's rule, bagging key government jobs.
Yet they have grown critical of Mr Erdoğan in recent months. They are unnerved by the rift with Israel, and insist that the prime minister is too soft on the pro-secular army. Never mind that hundreds of officers, including scores of serving generals, have been jailed for alleged coup-plotting. The Gülenists get on better with Mr Gül, and want him to become the next prime minister.
Amid all the plotting one might ask why it is assumed with such certainty that AK will win the next election. One answer is that despite a hopeful start by its new leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the main opposition Republican People’s Party remains weak and divided. Another is that the Turkish economy has until now been left largely unscathed by the global financial crisis (although many fear that it is dangerously overheating).
Yet a recent poll commissioned by an American NGO found that over one-third of respondents would “definitely not” vote for AK without MrErdoğan at its helm. Besides, as Vladimir Putin’s recent setback has shown, voters can tire of stability. The only certainty is that for now, Mr Erdoğan remains indisputably in charge.